Chance of winning control

Democrats Republicans

District Predictions

Data and predictions about each of the 435 House districts, with the most competitive districts at the top. Districts expected to flip parties are highlighted in grey and italicized.

District	Dem. Chances	Rep. Chances	Predicted Margin

History

How the parties’ chances have changed over time. The model is run every day, and continually incorporates new polling data.

Possible Scenarios

The model simulates a hundred thousand elections, and keeps track of how often a variety of outcomes occur. Below are the results.

Scenario	Probability
Democrats gain seats (currently 188)
Republicans gain seats (currently 247)
Democrats win popular vote
Republicans win popular vote
Democrats win popular vote but lose House
Republicans win popular vote but lose House
Democratic supermajority (290 seats or more)
Republican supermajority
Democratic landslide (>10% popular vote margin)
Republican landslide