Chance of winning the presidency

Clinton Trump

Chance of winning:
Hillary Clinton   
Donald Trump  

Distribution of Outcomes

The cumulative result of all of the simulated elections. The number of Democratic electors is shown. The blue bars are wins for Clinton, and the red ones are wins for Trump.

History

How the candidates’ chances have changed over time. The model is run every day, and continually incorporates new polling data.

Possible Scenarios

The model simulates half a million elections, and keeps track of how often a variety of outcomes occur. Below are the results.
Scenario Probability
Electoral College tie
Election-deciding recount (critical state within 0.5%)
Clinton wins popular vote
Trump wins popular vote
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College
Clinton landslide (>10% popular vote margin)
Trump landslide