2022 Midterms Forecast

import { fmt_pct, rate, fmt_surname, AP } from "./utils.js"
d3 = require("d3")

d_sum = FileAttachment("summary.json").json()
d_history = FileAttachment("history.csv").csv({typed: true})

DARK_BLUE = "#0063B1"
DARK_RED = "#A0442C"
BLUE = "#3D77BB"
RED = "#B25D4C"
w_BODY = 796;
SMALL = width < 600;

color = {
    let midpt = "#fafffa";
    let color_dem = d3.scaleLinear()
        .domain([0.5, 1.0])
        .range([midpt, DARK_BLUE]);
    let color_gop = d3.scaleLinear()
        .domain([0.0, 0.5])
        .range([DARK_RED, midpt]);
    return x => x <= 0.5 ? color_gop(x) : color_dem(x);
}

dem_lead = d_sum.sen_prob > 0.5
{
    let win_party = dem_lead ? "Democrats" : "Republicans"
    let win_class = dem_lead ? "dem" : "rep"
    let phrase = dem_lead ? "maintaining" : "flipping"
    let prob = dem_lead ? d_sum.sen_prob : 1 - d_sum.sen_prob
    let timestamp = d_history[d_history.length-1].timestamp;
    let date_fmt = timestamp.toLocaleString("en-US", { 
            weekday: "long", 
            month: "long", 
            day: "numeric", 
            })       

    return md`
As of ${date_fmt}, there is a:

**${fmt_pct(d_sum.pr_DsRh)} chance** of a <b class="dem">Democratic</b> Senate and <b class="rep">Republican</b> House.

**${fmt_pct(d_sum.pr_RsRh)} chance** of a <b class="rep">Republican</b> Senate and <b class="rep">Republican</b> House.

**${fmt_pct(d_sum.pr_DsDh)} chance** of a <b class="dem">Democratic</b> Senate and <b class="dem">Democratic</b> House.

**${fmt_pct(d_sum.pr_RsDh)} chance** of a <b class="rep">Republican</b> Senate and <b class="dem">Democratic</b> House.
`;
}

House Forecast »

Senate Forecast »