Senate Forecast


Cory McCartan

The Senate map

Each state is shaded by the probability of a Democratic or Republican win. Cross-hatching indicates an incumbent who has a 50% or higher chance of losing. You can hover over a state to learn more.

Public opinion over time

This chart shows the model’s best estimate of how the generic congressional ballot has evolved over the past few months. The darker and lighter bands show 50% and 80% credible intervals.

The 35 Senate races

You can search by state, candidate, incumbency, rating, or contestedness. Try searching for “Schumer”, “WA,” “open,” “safe,” “contested,” “lean rep.,” or “tossup” seats.

†Estimates do not account for rank-choice voting.

How the odds have changed

The model is regularly re-run as new data and polls come in. The charts below track how the model’s election-day forecast has changed over time.

National polling

The most recent generic congressional ballot polls are shown in the table below. The Impact column roughly measures how the poll is currently affecting the model—whether it is pulling the forecast towards Democrats or Republicans, and by how much.

A detailed write-up of the model, along with code and data, are available here.

Data are courtesy of FiveThirtyEight, Data for Progress, VEST, the ALARM Project, Daily Kos Elections, the MIT Election Data + Science Lab, Jeremiah, Kuriwaki, and Snyder 2021, and IPUMS.